Also, a note on low oil prices.
This is temporary. Get long oil (though I'm not sure when, timing the bottom will potentially be costly with oil's traditional/current/forever volatility)! Inflation alone will cause immense increases in the value of oil in late 2010.
Lots of people are saying this is a bad thing, particularly Green activists, but Fuck Them. I don't drive to work with a tankful of sunshine and happiness, and right now lower gas prices are a big, fat disposable income boost. I can use this money to invest, to buy products, to pay for services, etc. This is great for our economy.
The people who say it's bad are always sobbing about opportunity cost. They're kind of right - long term, renewable energy sources will be more "valuable" than oil could ever be, and regulatory/policy/industry delays in its implementation will likely cost us. I'm pretty okay with that argument. But markets don't care, and neither do I, because oil is cheaper by the minute right now and it's not like most consumers have any other transportation options.
And guess what? There's water all over the opportunity cost argument, because I (and this is me leaving the realm of the truly rational) honestly believe we've learned our lesson this time. One of the good aspects of the bailout of autos, if there are any, is that they will create immense political pressure to STAY GREEN in the transportation market. We have a President-elect who has promised us renewable/clean energy investments. It's too early to say if car behavior has truly been fundamentally altered, but my thought is that many Americans will remember hundred-dollar tanks of gas for their adult lives.
We'll see, right? But right now, this second, cheaper gas is great for me and for everyone who drives a car. So suck it, granola.
1 comment:
When I read that and thought about it, I guess I think we've learned this time, too. I can't believe I'm saying that (and wouldn't bet hard cash on it), but it feels like we really are starting to tell ourselves that, yeah, OK, it's time to get serious now.
As for oil prices, at this point I'm kinda of the (nihilistic, I suppose) position that the shit is so close to hitting the fan, and we're either going to handle it or not, but whether gas is cheap for a few months isn't ultimately going to make a difference and we may as well enjoy the feast before it gets famine-y. Or it could just be my hatred of hippies speaking.
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